Kiev: AUG 25 1am Rebel Cmdr. STRELKOV retired-wounded?- Girkin may have been pickled- after disappearing for several days, former DPR self-appointed Speaker Pushilin (Russian)+ Donetsk "peoples Governor" Gubarov(interview) first said rebel commander + FSB/GRU Colonel Igor Girkin (Strelkov) may have been seriously wounded; now the story is he has quit, says
the Donetsk Peoples Republic press service. I may have been first in warning that new Dep. PM Moscow appointee, 20 year Transdniester KGB head Vladimir Antyufeyev may
have been sent to dispatch Igor for threatening the Little Big Man
(aka VVP)- he had said Putin better support the rebels or he would end up like
Serb strongman Milosovic (on trial in the Hague) or the deposed Czar;
Guberov said Putin "betrayed NovaRoosyia'. Worse, once liberal Echo
Moscow radio reported Strelkov was outpolling Putin, a virtual
death sentence, since interfering in politics (once uber-oligarch
Khodorkovsky's true "crime") includes being popular. "Shooter" (Strelkov
in English) is not the type to
retire- either he was badly hurt or
has been arrested and jailed by Russia, never to be seen again.
Meanwhile Lugansk "PR" leader Valery
Bolotov has also been wounded and "quit", meaning almost all leading
Russian Separatists have been removed (inc. "Prime Minister" Borodai,
"Demon" Bezler, Pushilin)- they had
already purged the Ukrainian leaders. 4 possible scenario
reasons: Key: Sep= separatist; Ukr=Ukrainian, Ukraine; Rus=Russian
1. Putin is pulling the plug on the whole foul adventure- coupled with his strangely conciliatory speech in Crimea- "We must calmly.. build up our country with dignity, not fence it off from the outside world,...(Ukraine) has plunged into a bloody chaos, a fratricidal conflict, a
humanitarian catastrophe. We will do all we
can to stop this conflict as soon as possible and end bloodshed in
Ukraine." (not carried on Russian TV or Internet). He has done the
math again, and realized it adds up to zero long term future for him (what I predicted in April- that he's unleashed titanic forces that will sweep him away in 4-5 years)-
Russian bans on food + sanctions have started to bite, capital flight could be $200 billion
this year; so the Russian Separatists must be crushed- they are real
radicals who would accuse the Kremlin of cowardice when he
stands down, which wouldfly in
the newly ferociously Rusky imperialistic public- if this scenario is
true, look for other passionate NovaRoosiya voices in Russia to be
suddenly silenced. Without
"inspirational" Strelkov, much of the true believer and mercenary
brigades should vaporize (though the latter is easier- just don't pay
them). Then the aid convoy is a genuine offering- the fact that the trucks are almost empty could mean they are there to withdraw the Rebels and armaments!,
though done in a standard bullying style to terrorize Ukr. Even when
publicity is vital to their plans, Russians keep things secret- until 36
years later America didn't know they already had 162 nukes on Cuba in the Cuban Missile Crisis (McNamara Aud - "If you don't tell people you have them, there's NO DETERRENCE!"). Though logically, since Russia has been claiming there were no Russians or vehicles in Ukraine, they can't overtly go in to remove them- their idiotic fictions must be maintained.
2.
He replaced all the Russians to put a Ukrainian face on the whole
occupation- the dominance of Russians was noted by all and a continuing
PR disaster re. the supposed "peoples revolt" against the "Nazi junta"
in Kyiv.
Also every leader has been off the reservation, telling the truth about
the Russian Separatists shooting down MH17, and various other crimes- the Kremlin
likes strict obedience to the official BS line- just their presence in Ukraine has made them unreliably honest; it must besomething in the water. Novaya Gazeta's Dima Muratov says Borodai called Moscow papers and admitted they shot down an airliner! [Now pay me for my opus AGW article, Dima!] This
argues for long-term occupation, though the tactical domination of
Ukrainian forces doesn't!
Alex Borodai greets new DPR "PM" Alex (3rd Zakharchenko-
So this includes a complete invasion by Russian forces to "stabilize" the situation (amputate
another part of Ukraine to become a festering frozen zone). The 90%
empty Potemkin aid trucks and fat military escort are then really triggers for the invasion, when they are "attacked" by evil Kyiv (actually Russian artillery or rockets)- Gubarov's interview hints of that as well as the SBU claim that MH17 missile was actually supposed to shoot down an Aeroflot plane as a trigger for invasion, but the Buk operators went to the wrong Pervomaisk (see Aug 10 Blog)! Meanwhile huge Russian military convoys are on the move through Belgorod, Rostov, Krasnodar(100 including Grads) and a 142 vehicle Russian military convoycrossed into Ukraine through
Dibrovka (300 km of border open!). Strelkov's replacement Defense Min., Vlad Kononov, is a local, and his deputy is another Strelkov.
3 bad developments the 22nd- the Lithuanian honorary council Mykola
Zelenek was kidnapped and killed by rampaging Separatists (Demjin was on
the turned back last plane with him from Kiev to Crimea in March), NATA Sec. General Rasmussen said regular Russian troops are now shelling Ukrainefrom inside Ukraine- that they've crossed the border with artillery, andRussian
vehicles are still streaming to and through the border. This may be to
maximize pressure on Kyiv before the Minsk summit.
3.
Putin has snapped, and under grinding pressure from all sides, isn't
functioning completely rationally- he is playing all sides, despite some
partially canceling each other out. OR having multiple options and exits is standard KGB training and the diminutive Master of the Universe
hasn't decided yet, thinks he is very clever in keeping all his options
open, and is still in charge. Sadly, he is.... in charge. The first part of this is by far the most dangerous, because there's no way to predict what he will do.
4. Both leaders were really wounded,
the Ukrainians are kicking asc and are really close to winning, leading
to Scen. 1, 2, 3, or 3b: Putin starts a nuclear war. The Ukrainians are close to winning, though the costs to the big Russian Separatist urban strongholds would be extreme. Though bad news on Sunday: New DPR leader Zakharchenko says 1200 Russian reinforcements arrived in Lugansk, trained for 4 months in Rostov, with 30 tanks, and 120 APCs (military blogger Tymchuk confirms that 40 "heavy armor" have entered)- Ukr MUST close the border to ever really win. remnants of rebel tank blasted by Ukrainians-
I really don't know- I'd now say 44% probability of scenario #1, 34% #2, 16% #3, 5% #4, 1% #3b(revised Aug 24) Every day that goes by without an invasion tilts probability to #1. The low number for #4 is only because probability of both these
leaders being wounded or removed at once is very low. Nothing could be better news than
Strelkov removed or killed- he is the heart of the Russian Separatist effort- couldn't
understand why Ukrainians weren't targeting the leaders- a legitimate tactic
in every war. Even considering the fate of the poor hostages, blasting
the Donetsk Regional Admin building or the Lugansk SBU, could be a
decisive game-changing blow; ~620 Ukrainian soldiers are dead, 2400 wounded,
2300
civilians, 3000? rebels, 5 people I know, no 9 from the latest photos of
the casualties- 4 more guys from Maidan. I've longed
for some
astute precise commando actions. Strelkov is a stone killer ("Get that body out of the basement- it's stinking up the place!"-
re. the tortured/murdered Horlivka councilman, who dared try hoist a
Ukrainian flag on the city council), and should be hunted down. The courageous local artist
who specialized in mocking Separatists (Just Do
It!), Sergei Zakharov, also has been disappeared by Russian Separatists in Donetsk.
The mysterious slow-motion white convoy, has all crossed the Ukrainian border near Luganskv from 11:10am Aug 22 through the rebel controlled crossing at Izvarinye, with some Russian Separatists, according to sources, without Red Cross, OSCE or Ukrainian accompaniment or express permission from Ukraine. By noon Saturday- all returned to the border and 1/3 had already crossed back into Russia- impossibly fast
to get to a war torn area without people to unload, disperse, unload,
and return back through the shelling area, precision that almost screams
military operation. Reportedly they looted military production equipment from the Topaz plant which makes Kolchuga radar and an Lugansk ammo magazine factory, trying to secure needed parts for their military machine before withdrawing the invaders- arguing for #1. SBU head Nalyvaichenko called it a "direct incursion"
and claimed the trucks contained military gear for the Russian
Separatists, while the Russian Foreign Ministry threatened Ukraine to
not interfere with it (We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission...those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives... will assume
complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations) .
Another highly suspicious event- there were a counted 270 trucks in the
convoy, but only 227 crossed into + out of the border, claimed OSCE
pbservers, so 43 trucks were peeled off for some reason. Only 34 of the 270 trucks had been inspected,
Russians supposedly stopped Ukraine from more, but they had 1 week to
do this, finding what these consisted of was a vital
national security issue- so the Russian charges of foot-dragging seem
justified.
All parties (Seps) had not given security guarantees
in negotiations between Ukr, Seps, and Red Cross, and in fact Russian
Separatists
started to shell it, so they stopped., backtracked and diverted north
along the border to enter from Stanitsya-Lugansk to the NE... an area
fully controlled by Kyiv, yet spokesman Lysenko claimed to not know
where they were. They expect the convoy to
proceed to specified locations in Lugansk, but at the crux of the
battle is really lousy timing- my suspicions it went 80-90% to the
Russian Separatists,
who controlled its distribution, and because it wasn't inspected, it
may have all types of military gear, say 100 Buk missiles or 1000 Igla
Stingers- easy to have 20 Trojan trucks
embedded in such a huge number at the 180th truck- reporters invited to
inspect random trucks, wouldn't hop in a car and drive 2 km down to
check those. The 80-90% empty trucks then make sense as a shell game-
just try to find the one with the nut. Russia also promised more aid
convoys- once you invade a country humanitarianly, it's easy to do it
again. -Russian Convoy Inside Ukraine Aug 22
In the bizzaro-world of DPR, the relief had not crossed because it would be considered an invasion, meanwhile another 23 Russian military vehicles- including APCs- just DID (more recently 30 more), crossing under the eyes of journalists (after perhaps 900-1300 already have), to add to the 142 that did Aug 13on the way to Snezhnye on the crucial Donetsk-Lugansk route,
where the MH17 killer Buk was stationed. The ATO said it attacked and partially destroyed the smaller of these convoys. The relief convoy had a military wing of APCs, trucks and helicopters, inc a new toy- a 9k22 Tunguska AA missile-cannon- very strange PR
for a purported relief mission. Forcing them to go through rebel-held
territory revealed to the world the scale of Russia's continuous
incursions- which media are laughably reacting to as if it is a new
phenomenon.
-Potemkin Russian aid@CourtneyMoscow
Several
reporters were allowed to inspect random trucks by the relaxed
ex-military khaki t-shirt, shorts, +cap wearing drivers- all reported it
was only food + supplies, but still only 10-20% full, as I said on Aug 14th: One thing strange: why are these "aid" trucks so light- 2000mt/270 (avg of 5#'s of trucks)= 7.4MT a semi- these things can hold 28-35 tons! Whats in em- cheese puffs, marshmallows? No... humanitarian air, apparently. An
official car from Red Cross with diplomatic plates finally arrived to
consult with the Russian deliverymen and Ukrainian officials.
Note my 270 truck guesstimate was verified by Oliphant from convoy
leaders- numbers had ranged from 200-297; often, operating from a torrent of conflicting information, my assessments are excruciatingly accurate. Ukraine
is also getting in on the PR war- sending 75 trucks with 800 tons of
relief East from various cities Aug 14th, which arrived Aug 15th in
several cities- full, including Lysychansk; Gov. Kolomoisky claims he will send 10,000 tons. These trucks were full. They
should make sure some of that gets to the hundreds of thousands of
refugees inside Ukraine proper, who are barely scraping by, including a few friends.
humanitarian 9k22 Tunguska AA missile-cannon- The white convoy aid sat inRussian Voronezhuntil Aug 14 dawn, according to FT Moscow dep. bureau head Courtney Weaver, various media had them everywhere. They were first supposed to go through the Ukrainian controlled border at Kharkiv, but Ukraine's Interior Min. Avakov, paranoid about provocations, said no crossing there, so they have movednear the rebel Izvarinye crossing- just East of Lugansk- totally uncontrolled- very risky
business- if it is part of massive set-piece invasion.
This all could be
psych warfare, but Putin's got so
many plates in the air, some have to smash soon. - Russian military convoy in Rostov Reg, near Donbass, heading to Ukraine
Michael Hammerschlag’s articles (HAMMERNEWS.com)
have appeared in NYT, IHT, Seattle Times, Providence Journal, Columbia
Journalism Review, Yahoo, Hawaii Advertiser; Moscow News, Tribune,
Times, and Guardian, Novaya Gazeta; Kyiv Post, Kyiv Weekly, Politics in
Ukraine, and Business Ukraine. He’s spent 9 years over the last 23 in Russia & Ukraine, has covered this story since (FULL COVERAGE) Nov 1st, wrote 2 long articles on the EU Association Agreement and Crimean Invasion for Yahoo, and warned of Ukraine’s loss of Independence in May 2010 after Yanukovich’s election.
humanitarian Uragan (Hurricane) rocket launcher- new toy for Seps UPDATE: August 25 3pm
Ilovaysk, just SE of Donetsk is 2/3 Ukrainian controlled- the Ukrainian flag is flying over the City Council bldg,
says the ATO and Demjin spokesman, but torrid fighting continues there for the last week (Donbass
Bat. commander Semenchenko was seriously wounded and American Pvt. "Franko" killed)
and in the cities of Zhdanivka, Makiyivka, Khartsyzsk, Debaltsevo, Yasynuvata, and Starobesheve. Makiyivka borders Donetsk to the east and Yasynuvata to the north. In a sign of desperation, Russian Separatists threatened the death penalty
for desertion or looting, as reporters describe drunken rebels crashing cars in the same place 3 times, the last time seriously injuring 4- the thug then got out of his car, waved a pistol around, and kicked the victims. I asked how Demjin could be traveling with the
Separatists at this late date, "I want to get an interview before they are all
killed." In another report from Ilovaisk with the Donbas Battalion on Aug 22nd night,
he was more downbeat, "It's the sht- we just had 5 guys, killed 14
wounded. They're hitting us with everything, artillery, Grads, mortars, RPGs (inc. fragmentation ones that do air burst) snipers.
They have the high ground so we are exposed. You
can hear the shells coming- you have 4 1/2 seconds to dive in a hole or
somewhere low... so I haven't got hit yet... The Rebels maybe have 200
Grad trucks, we've destroyed about half of them."
In his last report Aug 24, he couldn't talk, "We're under fire, they're
walking in mortars on us- gotta go!" Ukraine has been wary of using air
power, except in Lugansk, where there were fewer AA missiles, but that
changed with the latest Russian military convoy. In Donetsk, Rebels were firing heavy artillery right from the center Tuesday, and
the noose is growing tighter- "Not closed yet, but close," says Demjin
who reached 4.5 km from the center 11 days ago with the Donbas Battalion. NYT interviews the new inexperienced DPR leaders, which
have included a science fiction author, the owner of a dog behavior
school, a man who was a Santa Claus, a public heath inspector, the
operator of a Ponzi scheme; all probable sacrifices to the advancing
Ukrainians. - Ukrainians load a Grad Missile w a 20kg warhead. BMD log of Russian Pskov Div fighting in Ukrainian - And far Eastern Lugansk, near the Russian border, is falling- Ukrainian troops penetrated to the NE Zhovteny district by Aug 17- 7km from the center; it is under relentless air and artillery
assault, including from Russian territory on the Ukrainian positions, but wasn't entirely surrounded- some of the 1200 Russian
reinforcements, trained for 4 months in Rostov, 150 vehicles, 30 tanks
just got in- military blogger Tymchuk says 40 heavy armor (interview Aud@4:01 mp3). Now it is supposedly sealed, but has suffered without
electricity, water, or phone for 21 days, 2 weeks without trash pickup, lines are long for food, and the streets are deserted. LA Times says a significant part of Lugansk is in Ukrainian hands with 43 deaths, including 9 Ukraine soldiers. A fleeing group of Lugansk refugees through the Ukrainian safe corridor, flying white flags, was pounded allegedly by Russian Separatist Grad rockets, killing 18. Some
were burned alive in their cars, reports Kyiv Post's enterprising Chris
Miller. Russian Seps have warned some residents that they couldn't flee,
banned and seized personal cars, and blockaded some escape routes. Like
Adolph, some want the residents to also perish in their own personal
Gotterdammerung. Tymchuk
says desperate residents who haven't had their cars stolen by rebels, are selling
them for $75-150, maybe anticipating they'll be destroyed. The Russians have begun to fight among themselves: a "Trifon", who fought alongside Strelkov in
Slaviansk uses Russian curses to condemn local rebels for doing "nothing
at all" and says he needs a way out to return to Russia. Mercenaries don't fight to the death and these people have no stake in the Donbas.
Older 40-rocket Grad BM21 Merkel came to Kiev Aug 23, supposedly she chats with Poroshenko every day, but she has long been semi-housebroken by Putin, unable to forget her DDR youth, she thinks Putin has a valid right to interfere in the FSU,
and is likely to push that view- she may push for Ukraine to recognize
Russia's theft of Crimea (fine if it really brings peace, but Putin
can't really be trusted as far as one can spit). Merkel said the key is
to control the border (with the impotent OSCE)- of course, but Poroshenko was clear: "What is stopping (a peaceful settlement) are the foreign mercenaries.
Take the people with guns out of our territory....and peace in Ukraine
will be quickly restored."The German Vice-Chancellor probably revealed the agenda- push Ukraine, on the verge of a bloody victory into adopting "Federalism",
not as it is practiced in Germany or America or Russia itself (not)-
no, this special version would leave Donbas defacto independent to be
controlled by Kremlin stooges. Yet the leadership has
agreed has to talks on the 26th with Putin, EU, and
bizarrely, the leaders of Khazakstan and Belarus in Minsk- what they can
bring is
unknown, except for Customs Union weight on the Putin side- maybe it is
an object lesson to them in the risks of imperial displeasure, or give
them a stake
in torturing Ukraine. We've been down this road before, unless the EU
has some HUGE sticks, there no reason Putin will agree to anything,
unless of course... he does to end Russia's estrangement. My sense is
that Poroshenko is grasping at straws to avoid the nightmare of
assaulting Donetsk, and has been a sucker for this before, but keeping
it up can display Ukraine's morality- that it is good PR.. but bad
warcraft, however PR is a very essential part of warcraft, so maybe he
is clever after all. Grads (Hailin Eng- above) are 24-40 unguided rocket trucks with a ~20 km range,
inaccurate at longer ranges, but terrifying weapons that can blanket an
entire area 400M squared with death and destruction (video), esp. fired in concert with other trucks- 1 full battalion has 18 trucks, 720 rockets!"They're being pounded from 4 sides with Grads. They said goodbye," were the last words of a wiped out Ukrainian detachment. Both side have used Grads, the Seps far more, which are really effective only for targets in the open under 10km away. US Ukr soldier Mark Paslovsky (Franko)-
Sadly American/Ukrainian hero, millionaire ex-investment banker Ukrainian diaspora Mark Paslowski (Vice video), 55, known as Franko in the Donbas Battalion, who'd lived 20 years in Lviv, was killed
in Grad, Fagot, and artillery shelling in Ilovaisk Aug 19th. I was
set to interview him but Andre hadn't given me his number yet.
Msta 152mm tankish artillery
He was a scathing critic of Gov incompetence in his Twitter feed:
-pic.twitter.com/tJXU6va9f2 - Gear FRANKO (Mark Paslavsky) carries
-Leadership in ATO at every level is incompetent, way out of date, and
extremely Soviet. Every soldier will confirm this. No respect 4 soldiers
-often travel 100+ kilometers to get to point 20 km away in ATO All
about controlling roads. Getting lost part of the process unfortunately;
Terrifying to travel in convoys at night. Mostly in buses. -- Right
sector guys got lost couple of days ago and ran into DNR roadblock. Bad
end
-About 25k ATO troops in east. I think we need 50k but for whatever
reason Ukraine/PP reluctant. No troops, no money western pressure ?
-Guys in our battalion received 1st pay for past 2 months. They got the giant sum of about 1000 hryvnias or $85 USD. Insulting
-Unfortunately many Ukrainians starting to view PP as just more of the same, a fat gluttonous oligarch http://t.co/bjXyJVrhPd
-Cmmdr PIC http://t.co/Nk2TVEyKne
-Cmmndr PIC on tank: http://t.co/LIVTL5PA6r
-BEST PIC: Armored vehicle PIC "If this flag troubles you we'll help gather your things" pic.twitter.com/lxsXTqIBxG
-Had to leave a extremely well fortified terrorist post yesterday due to amount of fire from post and Russian side of border.
-Ukrainian army doesn't get anywhere near the credit it deserves. Poorly
led equipped trained but still kicking ass everyday. Real heroes. AMEN
RIP
And besides the many fearsome 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers
(a tank with less armor w a 15km range), several of which have seen seen
in Russian Separatist areas; now the bigger 152mm Msta has shown up approaching
Ukraine, with a 36km range (22 miles), this can accurately pummel even
distant Ukrainian positions.
Another Mig29 fell to the evil Buks missiles Aug 17, the 2nd
top-of-the-line Soviet fighter they've lost, a SU24 ground attack
jet, and 2 Mi24 helicopters Aug 19-20. Ukraine
has been wary of using air power, except in Lugansk, where there were
fewer AA missiles, but that changed with the latest Russian military
convoy, and the frenzy of fighting before "peace" meetings and Independence Day. They've lost 18 aircraft now with 87 crew- 10 helicopters and 8 planes: one An-30B, one An-26, one Il-76, one Su-24M, two MiG-29s, and two Su-25s (left), worth about $250 mil total.
Ukraine held it's 23rd Independence Day celebration to moderate crowds-
with a military parade at 10am, NOT 11am, thank you KP, replete with a
military convoy of Tochka SRBM, Grads, et al. Russian Separatists
countered with their own parade of Ukr handcuffed morose prisoners a la
Moscow w Germans in 1944, even copying the contemptible following them
with street washers to wash off the stink. That should earn them some good treatment when they are captured.