IMPERIAL  STRETCH    

                                                                            by   Michael Hammerschlag

Incredibly, venal separatist and titushky-hirer Kharkiv Mayor Kernes has been allowed to keep power, Putin-pal hardline Russian subversive Medvedchuk hasn’t fled or been detained, and Russian Unity separatist orgs haven’t been outlawed and disbanded, their members deported to Russia and passport revoked. They want to live in Russia: make them. Defense Minister Igor Tenyukh gave a terse 7 min press conference Mar 17 before literally running out; Grytsenko had said he wasn’t up to the task. Reports said only a pitiful 6000 troops were combat- ready in this 46 million nation - Tenyukh was fired by Parliament Mar 24. Dep. Defense Min. Polyakov admitted March 29 that Ukraine’s military was completely penetrated by Russian agents, making any defense quite problematic. In the absence of leadership, the billion dollar Mig 29’s at Berbek Airfield weren’t flown out to the mainland or capital ships also rescued- they should have fought their way out from the initial handful of occupiers, though a Russian journo says only 3 were operational. Sailors Union Pres. Voloshyn said the ships (@9:50min) were blocked by Russian sunk ships, and defected Naval Commander Berezovsky’s betrayal lost crucial time to escape, now 51 of 61 have been taken over by the Russians.

Yet in this Imperial Overreach, I think Putin is committing a grave blunder- himself unleashing titanic forces that could ultimately sweep him from power in 4-5 years. From providing an example to Russian separatists in Chechnya/Dagestan/Tatarstan/Tyumen/Yakutia/Petersburg by both the Crimean Invasion-Secession and the victorious Maidan, to energizing the nascent anti-imperialist anti-Putin middle class that rose up in 2012 (just what he's trying to forestall with this 19th century display), to crippling the Russian economy from sanctions- inc. funding the now-crippled Crimean tourist economy, to drawing attention to his own ill-gotten wealth as he broke his oligarchs (heard $40-60 bil), to risking the hundreds of billions of money held + shipped offshore (which has now become a flood- $80 bil this year, more than all of 2013) .… the long-term effects for Russia are dire. In the Cyprus meltdown, Western banks thought little of just appropriating 40% of “dirty” Russian money, without proof.  He is a creature of his upbringing and training as a KGB plotter and killer, and simply can't transcend it.

The total costs to Russia will be massive: Ukraine is not distant obscure Georgia (Atlana?); the organization, courage, and perseverance of the medieval Maidan warriors captured the imagination of the world: 3 Marathon months of blood, sweat, ice, tears, attacks, pain, brotherhood, exhaustion, loss, death, and hope. After all that, to deal with the plunder of their province by their former master is a cruel blow. “I’ll be 18 in a week,” sobbed normally perky Olga in the Press Center, “I don’t want my brothers to die in a war, Putin is crazy, he won’t stop there.” With this ruthless demonstration, the world will turn away from Russia en masse. Every penny of the $60 billion Putin peed away in Sochi for PR will be poterya.

 In 5 years the West may buy only half the natural resources they do now, Russia’s only income- military invaders are not reliable suppliers or partners. Russia could be thrown out of International Orgs from G8 to UN groups. Countries don’t respect such imperial takeovers now, they are alarmed and repulsed by them. China will think twice of any alliances, and boost their exploding military spending on border zones, forcing Russia to do the same (they have come out against the Invasion – loathe to inspire separatists in Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang). Corporate partnerships bringing valuable technology and needed modernization will be put on hold. Russians will have a tougher time getting visas, with their distasteful taste for Empire. With the theft of Crimean property and resources, Ukr may renege on some of the $30 billion of alleged Russian loans, though they are still constrained by the Gazprom chokehold, who in turn are constrained by the Ukr control of Russia-Europe pipelines. In response to sanctions, Russia may nationalize foreign companies, causing a wholesale flight of investment and cooperation, and a crippling exchange of sanctions. This Invasion has conversely forced a hesitant World into desperate Ukraine’s arms: $15 billion from the EU finally, EU AA finally signed- on a new Spring (unfortunately Putin signed the Crimea annexation simultaneously), $18  bil from the IMF, $10 bil of loans and military aid, NATO reinvigorated, moral, technical, and logistic support across the globe.

  - Bosphorus Straits

Sanctions, esp trade, and widespread pullback from Russian business will have a painful effect- the Russian market and ruble are already crashing, and Putin’s pals punished. Another measure that would really hurt (and could have had a strong prophylactic effect earlier) is closing the Bosphorus to Russian warships- the Montreux Convention gives SU the right to transit warships, but also absolute control to Turkey, who are worried about discrimination against their Turkic brethren (Jemeliev audio@11:00 min)- the Tatars, who already suffered deportation and genocide at Stalin’s hands; and the collapse and theft of their joint Crimean/Ukrainian investments. The 100 km long Turkish Straits are impregnable- even the Nazis never crossed through them, and Turkey being NATO, untouchable. Russia’s warm-water fleet is of limited utility without access to warm water. And beleaguered Erdogan could use some foreign policy stroke to display his waning authority. MH Questions Grytsenko/Klitschko on BOSPH - 3/14   Turkey WARNS Russia 3/17

Russia, in its massive land grab, does gain billions upon billions of spoils, including perhaps the crucial Black Sea shale leases in the Black Sea owned by the Crimean div. of Naftogas, necessary for Ukraine to break its dependence on Russian gas. Shell, in suspiciously bad timing, just cancelled negotiation over them. One thing the US should do is station a Battle Group in the Black Sea, and sit on these huge gas/oil leases Russia will try to rip off as the new "proprietors" of stolen KrimNaftogas, gas Ukr needs to break free from Russian dependence. That should be very forcefully negotiated with them- you get the land, but not the sea rights. Meanwhile Visa/MC shut off 2 Russian banks, and friends here tell me of Russians booted from their hotels. Surprised that some Ukrainian didn’t attack them, even if suicidally- some Russians should have paid the ultimate price for this foul takeover with their unmarked terrorist “green men”. The besieged hryvna’s now (April 11) breaking 13/$; the Euro topping 18 (60% devaluation!), though the Western money should have stabilized things somewhat, making huge price rises inevitable (one domestic drug just doubled), and creating immense pressure on $ debtors and Ukraine… to default. Actually brilliant Maidan Commandante and new banking chief Kubiv may be working wonders- the rate dropped to ~11/hrv April 17

                                                                        Black Sea Fleet -

Since Obama was limited to his bookish “grave concerns”, there was little to stop Putin’s plans… the over-extended US had only 2 of 10 Carrier Battle groups deployed, and nothing near the Black Sea on Feb 27-28, when a dozen US ships cruising around Sevastopol or a few Mach 1.1 F18 over-flights of the Simferopol Parliament may have made Putin reconsider this adventure (though Ukraine could have also done overflights). The CVN George HW Bush carrier group crossed Gibraltar Feb 27, and only reached Greece Mar 4; only the guided missile cruiser Truxton (which I once toured) and now Aegis missile cruiser Donald Cook have crossed into the Chorny Morye, the French have just sent in the most advanced naval intelligence ship, an anti-sub frigate, and a cruiser; more devastating to Russian modernization, they were going to cancel the 2 Mistral helicopter carrier/assault ships for Russia, already half paid for. A truce over the besieged blockaded Ukrainian bases to give them free passage was passed Mar 16, but Russians were threatening Ukrainian forces only a few days later. After 2 were killed in attacks on a mapping center in Simpheropol Mar 18, naval commander Haiduk kidnapped in Russian storming of his naval base (released Mar 20), and the holdout Belbek Airbase being stormed Sat., Ukrainians are withdrawing all forces from Crimea, 1/3 are evacuating to the mainland, 1/3 changing sides, 1/3 quitting and staying, said Polyakov. 2 more: a soldier and an officer were killed by Russians and another officer kidnapped (likely dead), chased into their dormitory by drunken Russians from the seized entrance. Invader honor was on display as they took over Ukr bases using a first wave of Russian “protesters”, inc. women and children to rip down the fences, then a second wave of self-defense vigilantes, with Russians in the third. If the Ukrainian soldiers wanted to resist, they would have to shoot “civilians”. In a chilling echo of Soviet brutalization of the victorious Red Army (sent to the Gulag because they had seen the West),, Polyakov said Ukr turncoat soldiers may be sent to Russia’s far East, isolating the unreliable locals.

Ukraine was hopelessly outmatched, and the Crimean takeover already a fait accompli within 4 days- the moves on the Eastern border seem an apparent feint, but if Putin can achieve de-facto Eastern secession with his tourist guerillas, he will. Ukraine’s soldiers showed remarkable restraint as they suffered Guantanamo-ish tortures in Crimea (“Are they shooting yet”, complained a frustrated VVP). All Crimea water and electricity comes over the Isthmus from the Mainland- Ukraine could cut them off, but that would punish Crimean Ukrainians and Tatars and maybe provoke the invasion of all of Ukraine- Russia has already sent probe forces into Kherson on the mainland, and taken over a gas plant on a long spit just off NE Crimea. This is partially a long term result of Yushchenko's attempts to evict the Black Sea Fleet (NPR aud @ 29:10`min) and flirtation with NATO- no doubt Putin started considering it then- and feared the new Government might repeat them.

                                                                                                                    Russian jets near Ukr border -

Now Ukraine is trembling under the threat of serious Russian buildup along the border- dozens of jets at empty airfields, 50,000 soldiers, columns of tanks, field hospitals, and a US assessment that an invasion is more likely (not likely)- I don’t think so: the cost for invading ALL Ukraine (or just the East) would break Russia. It is a feint to divert attention from Crimea, make it a fait-accompli, and make EVERYBODY happy when Vlad is reasonable and doesn't invade the East. Meanwhile nobody cares about Crimea, which alone is going to cost hundreds of billions of damage and investment., the East gets greater autonomy (agreed to by Yatseniuk in just the wrong signal to encourage more attacks), the Ukr economy collapses, and the May election is manipulated. Putin is doing everything to hurt and destabilize Ukraine, and has also cowed Armenia into the Customs Union, and virtually taken over Kyrgystan.

It is shocking that both houses of the Russian Parliament voted unanimously for this outrage, including my former editor at once liberal Moscow News (which had 3 editors executed by Stalin; now Kremlin owned), Alexei Pushkov- now Duma foreign relations chair. Only one MP voted against annexation. Ironically one absurd Russian charge against Ukraine’s new Government is their nationalism. There isn’t a threat to one hair on any Russian’s (speaker’s) head in Ukraine, but the Putinists know that- they are experts in this subversion - the protect endangered citizens ploy has been used in multiple Russian/Soviet invasions, even Hitler’s.

Ukraine is really a different place than Russia: less brutal, less aggressive, less paranoid at imagined slights- it is profoundly corrupt, but when the people scream enough, Government-connected criminals are punished. In Russia, the complainers are. Russians have a deep affection for and connections with Ukraine- it is imbedded throughout their history, literature, language…  but Ukraine didn't "join" Russia, the Cossacks were slaughtered on their last island redoubt - Russian overlordship started with great violence, which reached it's apogee in the 20's and 30's, when the Bolshevicks-Cheka-KGB killed 10-16 million in their purges, famines, and psychotic schemes. These genocidal killings, which Russia despicably refuses to even acknowledge (would Germany have a seat anywhere if they denied the Holocaust?), are the reason Russia has lost any right  to a say in Ukraine’s future.

       Ukr cop beaten by pro-Russians in takeover in Horlivka

While Russians think of Ukraine fondly as their little brother, many Ukrainians think of Russia as a sadistic elder sibling: bullying, arbitrary, carelessly cruel. Russians have also been master, teacher, trainer, in the USSR and later. In fact, Ukrainians maybe psychologically unable to fight Russians, they haven't even closed the border to these tourist thug rioters till recently (who have killed 4 in Donetsk region –in an armed foreign insurrection) or replaced the Russian-sympathizer police and security forces with those loyal to the Center. After the incredible courage and fortitude of the Maidan fighting, Ukrs are returning to their former passive behavior, and it's maddening- some new security Ministers aren't professional military, but amateur Maidan revolutionists. Ukrainians and Russians share a common heritage- I even coined the word Rukrainians to identify many behaviors common to both, yet even most Russian transplants to the East consider themselves Ukrainian and don’t want to switch nationalities- only 33% of Donetsk, 24% Lughansk, and 16% of Kharkiv would merge with Russia:  most Easterners are loyal Ukrainians with enough nationalists to fuel a vicious insurgency should Putin invade- Ukrainian-speakers dominate even Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.

Yet Russians hammer the tired Soviet slander of “Nazis, fascists, extremists” taking charge in Ukraine- it moves Western hearts and minds, whose media just love Nazis- it still sells papers. I’ve watched German journos bubbling with joy that they dug up some crazy RW loser to appease their editor- Germans love Nazis because most of the neo-Nazi events in the world happen in Germany. But it is nonsense- perhaps under 7% of Svoboda or the newer right groups harbor racist or anti-foreigner views… far less than comparable groups in Russia, who are accepted because they are usually fervent nationalists. I have worked next to and interviewed these people over 3 months, and haven’t seen a speck of anti-foreign/Semitic behavior. Mostly they are nationalists: this protest was largely fueled by their courage and energy- the real reason for their hatred.

                           pro-Russians attacking police Donnetsk -

In reality, right wing anti-Semitic extremists are far more common in Russia, as evidenced by the Serbian Chetniks, Russian Cossacks, disgraced Kiev Berkut, titushkis and other motley extremist groups invading Crimea (Donetsk Jews were just warned to register by the "self-defense" neo-Nazis defending Russians). Russians despised the Ukrainian independence movements because they were the only peoples in the SU who resisted their monstrous slaughters, so they've been trying to discredit them since the 1920's. Crimea (+ pro-Russian rallies) has become a frightening place, with journalists, activists, Ukrainian military under assault by the vigilante rabble Moscow has assembled- even Russian journalists are beaten, one US doc crew in Mariupol (Ukr, the port of Donetsk) barely got away with their life; another Ukr doc producer whom I worked with was chased down with gunfire by self-defense/Russian militia in Crimea and badly beaten (6 ribs broken); equipment smashed, along with 3 other journos, then denied treatment in a Simpheropol hospital where they couldn't see anything wrong on the x-rays. Another attendee at a Kharkov EuroMaidan concert was beaten and tortured for almost an hour by pro-Russian thugs. A girl I’d interviewed, Katya Butko of AutoMaidan, was kidnapped at the border, tortured, and held 3 days in Sevastopol with her 2 travel mates. Their crime? They had a Ukrainian flag in the trunk. Passage into the Peninsula by car is harrowing, people have even been kidnapped off trains for having photos of Maidan on their phone, and the only flights through Moscow.

The Maidan protest was indigenous – it wasn’t funded (much) by the CIA or EU (maybe the Parties, or an Oligarch) - it was about the biggest thief outside of Africa- a kleptocrat who stole an est. $40 billion in 4 years in a poor country- the entire deficit. Even Easterners were disgusted at the scale of Yanu's theft, whom he told for 3 years- We are going West! "He changed alot of minds in the East and South," said UDAR Kiev City Councilman and Protest leader Andrei Stranikov. Maidan was composed of people from every corner  of Ukraine, Jews, foreigners, I even had 4 very pro-Maidan Russians in my hotel 1 block away.  I asked many Protesters what they were paid- they didn’t even understand the question: millions of Ukrainians have donated food, money, cooking, clothes, apartments; spent weeks handing out sandwiches or soup.. to support this; whereas the Anti-Maidaners (inc. thugs) were all bussed in and given $30-65/day. I’ve watched Mercedes’s and BMW’s stop and disgorge trunkloads of supplies and hand out money- even rich who might be hurt by egalitarian Maidan felt they had to help.

    -  ex Mafiosa Goblin and Crimean PM Sergei Aksyonov

Putin has a tendency to back criminals, natural KGB allies : Yanukovich was a greedy thief, an 2 time ex-con who beat people unconscious, now a despised escaped traitor; Crimea’s “PM” Aksyonov was a brutal former Mafiyosa (Goblin) repeatedly linked to contract killings (who owes banks millions); Chechnya’s Kadyrov is a savage dictator. Mr. Putin isn’t acting like a ruler even of the last century, but of the 18^th with his initial attempted royal restoration of the Yanukovich line (though he later acknowledged Yanukovich is a political corpse.. who can never leave Russia). Yanukovich’s dethroning occurred in an almost unstoppable parabolic arc from the moment he jailed Tymoshenko (incredible for years), unable to take her nonstop screeching about his thievery.

Ukraine had a real chance now- Russia could have been a real big brother, and kept the money and support flowing, using Ukraine as a bridge to the EU. Ukraine will never lose its links and love of Mother Russia- common currents run swift and deep. But this bullying takeover will likely destroy the Ukraine economy, trembling on the edge, and create decades of bitterness. Ukrainian and Tatar refuges, threatened by the motley thugs running Crimea, could reach a flood. Division of property, possessions, the supply of Ukrainian pensions, utilities, wages will cause losses, pain, and conflict for decades. There was no need for this imperial takeover- it was entirely punitive, Russia will gain little and lose a lot.

Empires and emperors are destroyed much more by arrogance and overreach, than caution and conservatism- Hitler knew a 2 front war was suicidal and no one had ever successfully invaded Russia since the Mongols. He did it anyway. With his unshakeable mission to recreate the empire (as Putin advisor Ilarionov called it) Putin may have done something as stupid and disastrous, and may actually provoke the overthrow he hoped to prevent.

Michael Hammerschlag's articles (HAMMERNEWS.com) have appeared in NYT, IHT, Seattle Times, Providence Journal, Columbia Journalism Review, Hawaii Advertiser; Moscow News, Tribune, Times, and Guardian, Novaya Gazeta;  Kyiv Post & Weekly, Politics in Ukraine, and Business Ukraine. He's spent 8 years over the last 23 in Russia & Ukraine, has covered this story since (FULL COVERAGE) Nov 1^st, and warned of Ukraine’s loss of Independence in May 2010 after Yanukovich’s election.