by Michael Hammerschlag
New facts in the last few years show global warming4 will be much worse than thought... and detailed analyses of 4 km. of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores show catastrophic temperature changes of 8-11C happen fast, as quickly as a few years. Over the last 15 years climatologists have drilled 5 cores down through 900,000 years of history, through 8 complete ice ages, revealing temperatures, weather, dust, pollen, bacteria, and the actual atmospheric gases trapped in the yearly tree-like layers- the most detailed record of the earth's history ever seen. The big one- the full Antarctic record (EPICA)- was only finished in 2004. [all temps are C]
According to a recent book ICE , by Newsweek reporter Mariana Gospel, the shock was the startling abrupt shifts: 20 times in the last 100,000 year ice age, temperature spiked upward 5-9C (70% up towards current warmth) in as little as 5-10 years in the Northern hemisphere. Climate changes apparently often aren't like mountain building- slow grinding changes that take thousands of years. They are sometimes more like earthquakes- sudden sharp convulsions that totally change life on Earth; or maybe more like a seesaw, that, slowly overbalanced, finally slams to the other side. After the 1300 year Younger Dryas return to Ice Age weather 12,500 years ago after the spastic start of the current interglacial warm period (probably due to massive glacial Lake Agassiz- covering Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Mn- venting it's fresh water into the Atlantic when the Ice Cap dam broke, and interrupting the Gulf Stream), the end was explosive- temperatures extremes went up 9C in in a decade.
-140,000 yr ice core
temp records [links to full size charts at end]
"I cannot insist that the climate changed in one year, but it certainly looks that way," says UNH Greenland ice borer Richard Alley. The start of the Younger Dryas was harsh too- the temperature plummeted 8 C in a few years, but the rises have always been incredibly precipitous. The last warm Interglacial 115-135,000 years ago, the Eemian (Sangamon), was also punctuated by sudden severe coolings, less stable than ours. [Most warming numbers here refer to the most extreme changes, not the world average.]
The evidence is sobering: the spiking charts of temperatures over the last million years (measured by the amount of heavy Oxygen-O18) exactly match the peaks and valleys of CO2 and methane concentrations, but the current CO2 levels are off the chart, 48% higher than preindustrial levels, and 32% above anything seen in a million years1, and the entire unprecedented rise has been since 1750, the official cutoff for before industrial greenhouse gases-but actually since 1910). The 100,000 year ice age cycles are believed to be mainly due to several regular variations in Earth's orbit (changes from circular to closer to Sun ellipse during Interglacials), but potent greenhouse gases can amplify or alter them.
Average world warming is quite deceptive, since the effects increase enormously with latitude, so the 1.0C (1.62F) average rise, the number, over the last 110 years (from 1907 to 2017 a 1.1C rise in annual averages), can mean a .5C rise in the tropics, 1-1.7C rise in Europe, and 3-8C change in the Arctic, especially in the night temperature minimums, which reduces ice formation. "You have a factor of 3 between the tropics and the highest latitudes," says the NASA Goddard Director, climatologist Gavin Schmidt. Some places have "warmed much more than normal in the last 50 years. There's been a huge warming in Siberia and Alaska, but if you go to the Labrador Sea, it's very small."
are cranking out 9 billion tons* of CO2 a year, and
emissions are now
increasing 2.5% every year
(fluctuates), now 411
ppm and rising by 2-3
ppm (depends on fires) a year, and economically booming China's
(and soon India) CO2 generation is
exploding- a new power plant in China that could alone supply San Diego
built every 7-10 days, burning coal- the
worst fuel (their only), creating only carbon dioxide (and a little soot and
sulfur). Just since 1960, atmospheric CO2 has increased 30%! Every ton
of burning coal makes over 3 tons of CO2 !
After being stable for 8 years, Chinese coal burning in the 2 years up
to Dec 2004, increased 46% (using 10
much as all of Africa), leading to a worldwide coal use
increase of 16%- they passed USA as the worlds greatest atmospheric
polluter in 2006, and since have doubled their annual emissions! And per capita, the Chinese
are now only using a ninth the electricity
of Americans. For now. Even America's use of coal has gone up
54% from 1980 to 2000- 90% for generating electricity, it was expected to rise another
20% by 2020, but the explosion of fracked natural gas has reversed that. In the 1990's CO2 emissions increased
by 1-1.5% a year, so coal's effect has been catastrophic.
*[metric ton=2200 lbs= room of 1 Atm CO2 8 M3=27 ft3=volume of a small
summer house, so we emit maybe 9 billion houses full of CO2 a year]. The emissions weight refers to only the Carbon (standard practice), if you see 31gt/year, that refers to actual CO2
Yet carbon dioxide isn't the worst actor- Methane has a warming effect 84 times that of CO2 over 20 years- it breaks down into CO in 9-15 years2 (normally used number is 28 times over 100 years, but I'm more interested in flipping the see-saw), and we've been dumping this in the air like mad too- from rice paddies, tilling soil in farming, leaking natural gas pipes or oil wells, cattle and sheep- atmospheric methane has increased 2.7 fold in 250 years. Luckily for us there is 220 times less methane in the air than CO2- 1.86 parts per million, but that could change fast with the explosion of fracking and likely leaks from fractured shale fields. Less than half of methane is generated naturally- in volcanoes, peat bogs, organic decomposition- altogether 600-800 megatons a year, but that's uncertain.
Then there is nitrous oxide, 265 times more potent CHG than CO2, and this lasts 114 years, created from fertilizer, farming, deforestation, and car exhausts (increased 18% by man but only .31ppm); ozone, 03, protecting from ultraviolet 25km up, but a deadly irritant and powerful greenhouse gas at the surface; and the worst stuff- the artificial man-made CFC's- chlorofluorocarbons and halocarbons used in cooling and propellants, 2000-23,000 times stronger than CO2 , and lasting thousands of years. Taken together, the many halocarbons contribute about double the warming of NO, ozone roughly 2 times more and methane about 2.5 times more than halocarbons, and CO2 2 times that of methane.
These gases reinforcing and coordinate effects on warming haven't really been taken into account. Talk about the "carbon load" often means just CO2. Methane may be the time bomb that does us in. Maybe 1000 billion tons of carbon exists as organic material in the tundra peat bogs and permafrost of Siberia, Greenland, Canada, Alaska, immobilized in the frozen ground. The worst in the world warming is in the Arctic: 3-8C (5-14F) in the night, and it's suddenly melting a 115,000 year stable tundra the size of France and Germany into a patchwork of mud and lakes; allowing the natural decomposition of all that organic matter into methane. Russian scientist Sergei Kripotin said, it was "an ecological landslide that is probably irreversible, and undoubtedly connected to global warming" (which) has all happened in the last three or four years."
"If it's waterlogged and low oxygen environment, you'll get methane; if it's aerated, not soggy, it'll aerobically decompose and you'll get CO2," says UCLA hydrologist Larry Smith, who has extensively studied Siberian lakes and rivers. His research says Siberia is drying because the permafrost barrier is melting, allowing some lakes to drain away (6% loss of lake +area) through porous deposits, "like pulling the plug out of a bathtub. "It's a lot faster when it's dry, cause then you have more oxygen to use- the bacteria get more energy," says Univ. Alaska's Katey Walter. Those holes in the permafrost also allow methane reserves below to outgas.
In 3 half years in northeastern Siberia, Walter's joint Russian/American team found methane hot spots, bubbling to the -40C winter frozen lake surface so fast that it couldn't freeze, an effect that indicates there's much more organics than thought. "We think it's biological decomposition.. of the rich Pleistocene grasslands that the mammoths, bison, and lions were eating," she said from her office at the Prince William Sound Science Center. "It was the Serengeti of the North, really organic rich, and all the grass and dead animals are decomposing. It's constantly bubbling up like the lake is boiling!"
In a May 2006 presentation to the US Senate, she estimated a breathtaking 500 gigatons of carbon in the Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex alone, almost as much as all the vegetation on Earth (650gt), and doubling all known Arctic carbon! Worse, she claims if thawed it could mostly decompose within a century. The YIC is an 25 meter layer bigger than Texas that is 50-90% ice, soil, and 2.6% organic remains (20 times that of normal deep soil), formed from loess, a strange windblown dust that afflicted the end of last Ice Age, according to Sergei Zimov of the plushly outfitted Russian Northeast Science Station near the Arctic Ocean 800 miles west of NW Alaska. The carbon isn't in a narrow 2M band like the peat bogs. "The grasses were growing", clarifies Walter, "but they had a high accumulation rate (of loess), and the surface was riding higher and higher. We're talking about 80 feet (thick layer- 25 m.) for a million square kilometers."
Historically, before man mucked things up, there was supposedly about 3 gigatons a year more CO2 absorbed than emitted- a cushion for fires and volcanic emissions. Now there's 3-4 gt. excess carbon a year, much more than can be absorbed by all the sinks. Excluding limestone, the total amount of carbon in the earth's cycle is about 47,000 gigatons: 40,000 in the oceans, 4000 in the fossil fuels, 1600 in the soil, 900 in the tundra, 750 in the atmosphere, and 650 in the vegetation, with maybe up to 8000 gt. uncertainty.
Large portions of the 8000 mile weakened tundra coastline are eroding and collapsing into the Arctic Sea and releasing their stored gases (including unknown amounts of clathrates- below). "During winter you have sea ice attached to the shore; it's called fast ice- as warming continues it's open water.. and waves are crashing against the shore," clarifies Smith. "There's a lot of erosion taking place." Up to 20 m. a year disappears in Alaska, says Walter's paper. The potential danger from methane is immense- if just 1/2 % a year of the 500 gigatons of carbon in the organic material in this Yedoma Ice Complex (2 1/2 gt/year) fermented off as methane, it would create a century long warming effect over double all the net human-caused emissions in the world. 3 Take that, see-saw.
From a drilling ship in the Indian Ocean, Collett replied that clathrate was found as shallow as 300 M under permafrost in Alaska-Canada, but his charts show it could theoretically exist as shallow as 80 M Huge deposits exist off the Carolinas, Washington, the North Slope, Western Central America, Japan and 50 other places. Solid hydrate ice should float to the surface, but gaseous methane tends to dissolve in the ocean in a few hundred meters, whereupon, "bacteria eat the methane, and produce CO2", says Walter.
If the oceans warm enough to set this stuff free, we are talking hothouse horror, which they believe happened 55 million years ago, in the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), when the earth heated 15C hotter than today. North America was tropical, redwoods grew over Greenland, and one could go swimming on the North Pole. The entire ocean was heated 8 C down to the bottom and 40% of the micro-shellfish species perished from the lack of oxygen. They believe a methane belch occurred because of an absence of heavy carbon 13 in all the living limestone sediments, which is reduced in clathrates. Gavin Schmidt thinks that's impossible today. "The ocean is so large and has such a large heat capacity, that it takes an enormous amount of energy to warm it," said the editor (one of several) of the readable resource realclimate.org from his office in NYC.
Vertical river into mile thick Greenland ice sheet -
UCSB's Jim Kennett, author of the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis thinks the lower continental shelf clathrates are responsible for the abrupt heating spikes in the middle of the ice ages too, because the 105M drop in ocean levels may have reduced pressure enough for them to break down and changes in the proto-Gulf Streams suddenly exposed them to much more heat. "In ocean sediments offshore of California, colleagues at Woods Hole recently found geochemical traces of clathrate releases coincident with warmings in the Greenland ice core records," says Schmidt in a long paper. Clathrate bubbling out of the sediment can cause immense undersea landslides, like one (the Storegga) that happens 260 m. thick and hundreds of km long periodically off of Norway, relieving pressure on the buried hydrates and than causing an immense further methane release. 2008 research has found high levels of methane along the Arctic coast, presumably from holes in the ocean bottom ice cap over clathrate or already released methane- a potential for massive releases as the frozen fresh water runoff cap layer is melted (salt water freezes ~1C lower). UCSB scientists have recently witnessed blowouts of methane from the sea floor in the Santa Barbara Channel. Doing an aerial survey of Alaska, Katy Walter-Anthony found 150,000 methane outgassing sites!
and Co. think methane has been vastly underestimated, probably
accounting for a third of all warming,
because of reaction with nitrogen oxides and sunlight to create the irritating pollutant
ozone in smog, another potent greenhouse gas that has been tied
to extreme warming in the Arctic (latest estimate 36%). The worldwide exposion of fracking
for natural gas that has made America an exporter is another disturbing
trend- in a first survey NOAA discovered 4%
leakage from Denver area fields of fractured shale, making fracking
much worse than burning coal (balancing
point was 2%). A recent study showed only 2.3%, however.
Swimming the kilometer across a local lake in 40 weather, I'm stymied from getting out by floating layers of algae/seaweed. Barely standing on a loose bed of the stuff, a plethora of bubbles pops to the surface, which I sniff. It has a slight delicate order- pure methane- not the foul stench from human or animal gas (which is other compounds), or the distinctive odor of natural gas, which is treated to keep people from blowing themselves up. Methane, not even recognized as a GHG 45 years ago, may become the most dominant and life-changing one. It has the power to fuel man's future or devastate his world (natural gas is easier to sequester carbon from).
This finally explains why the temperature rises are smaller than expected, and showcases the extraordinary risk if this cooling were quickly stopped (from massive plane groundings from bankruptcies, gas prices, recession, tsunamis, or war). With $115/barrel oil and the economic meltdown from the junk mortgage disaster, many major airlines were teetering on shutdown- Delta alone was losing $8 billion a year and several went bust, though they have recovered, especially with cheap oil. In fact, if this effect ceased we might be dealing with extreme effects, 3 C rise by 2050, from 5-10 C (9-18 F) rise by the end of the century, enough to totally change the ecology of earth. Even a 50% reduction of flights would have instant devastating effects, increasing AGW by 50% in a pop. High altitude (6-11 km) particulate pollution also cools by providing seed points for water droplets, which form in greater number and smaller size, thereby making clouds more reflective than with larger droplets. Dust from the Chichon and Pinatubo volcanoes cooled the whole earth by 1C for a year each in 1982 and 1991. Some scientists are skeptical, claiming only a 4% solar reduction from 1961 to 1990, but other are aggressively advocating deliberate high altitude sulfer injection to jet exhaust to "manage" and limit GW, an extraordinarily risky (consider damaging the Ozone layer) solution that probably will be enacted by default when the Great Famine first hits.
- 2009 Australian firestorm
The total warming is accelerated by 8-10 feedback loops, where the warming causes something that increases the warming. As ice melts off of the Arctic cap, the shiny white mirror that absorbs only 15% of the heat, becomes dark ocean that absorbs 90% or tundra that absorbs maybe 80%. That is a 6-fold warming increase when the polar ice cap disappears one summer, expected soon. The summer ice cap has shrunk by 43% from 1968-2010, but the summer ice volume has dropped 78% from 1979 to 2011, so what's left is thin. As more moisture is evaporated into the atmosphere, the most powerful GHG of all- water vapor- jacks up the temperature more (water causes about 40-70% of all GHG warming, but it generally is excluded because it's so variable, mostly a liquid, and not under man's control). Hurricanes cause more hurricanes. Every year since 1980 stratospheric water vapor has increased more than 1%, partly from methane breakdown and jet contrails. As the world bakes and dries; monster forest fires turn millions of acres of carbon sink forests into CO2. 10% of Alaska's interior burned in 2004 and 2005, says Walter. In it's worst natural disaster, Australia was subject to Dante's Inferno in Feb 2009, where Saharan 48C temperatures, weeks of drought, and hurricane force winds created a megafire in Victoria that incinerated many towns, killed +200 people, even those in open areas 100m from the flames or fleeing at high speed in cars. Then they were devastated by megafloods in 2011 the area of France + Germany, and more hellish fires. Video In almost comically bad news, the highest projected GW outside the extreme Arctic is in the Amazon basin, the world's great genetic storehouse of live organic carbon and generator of oxygen. By 2100 scientists expect it to be largely destroyed by drought, fire, and replacement. Polar Summer Ice Shrinkage-
Non-snows of Kilimanjaro
are on track to be emitting 12 gigatons/yr of CO2 by 2030,
by 2100, according to The End of Oil. If
CO2 reaches 550 ppm from it's current 385, the
wheels will come off the car and devastating
changes would occur, but we would reach 520
by 2100 even if we froze emissions at current levels, says Paul
Roberts, pretty much impossible
(I get 556ppm based on 15ppm rise in 8 years
since 1998). Other studies showing that the heating effect of current
will persist for many centuries, say AGW
must almost cease by 2050 to save the earth.
Paul Hansen, director of Goddard, has
the target peak to avoid catastrophe down
to 425 ppm, if
coal use was phased out; and an eventual target of only 350
"if humanity wishes to preserve a planet
on which life adapted". Without several more New
Orleans, or many
millions dead from food collapse, there isn't the
political will to do the massive changes
necessary- up to 2% of US GNP to control
the US's 30% portion of anthropogenic global
warming. Worldwide CO2 emissions are 5 times higher
today than in 1950. That 425 ppm target would be reached by
only 2023, at a 3ppm yearly rise.
Bill McKibben talks of 3 new terrifying numbers- 2 C maximum temp rise to avoid catastrophe, 565 gigatons allowed of new CO2 to reach that point, and 2795 gigatons, the amount of CO2 produced if all the known oil, coal, gas reserves are burned - $27 trillion worth, and the near impossibility of preventing the carbon lobby from expending their "riches".
-Hilo Tsunami real land surface of Antarctica!
Imagine the effect of a 3 km thick 20 x 300 km chunk of ice (Long Island size) cracking off the continental shelf and tobogganing into the deep ocean at 200kph- it will make the Indonesia tidal wave look like child's play.. and it would happen over and over for centuries. Over 600 million people live under 10 M altitude (height devastated by 2004 Christmas tsunami and 2011 Japanese 9.0); about half the globe within 30M altitude. Or maybe the Northern hemisphere should be more worried about Greenland, where devastating melting is occurring and tsunami warning would be far shorter (1-4 hours)- on the southeast tip, the continental shelf is only 100 miles wide. On the 400M high conical island of Lanai off of Maui (I lived in HI 3 years), a yellowish bathtub ring is evident at 250M, from an ancient landslide off of the Big Island and the catastrophic tsunami resulting (this is a danger today with the entire eastern fourth riven by a huge volcanic fault). Except for 15-20 cities (including Kiev), every major city is on the coast, so even a 30M worldwide tsunami could virtually destroy civilization.
made many of these points in a 1998 Maui Time
global warming article (Alt.),
advocated to VP Gore huge subsidies to the
beautiful new electric cars, like
the GM EV-1, created to meet Cal.
pollution standard (but of course, that was the year of Monica). When
industry overturned that rule in
2002, they recalled all their leased
cars and crushed them in contempt, no
matter how much people
were willing to pay. Electric cars would prevent global warming and
oil crunch in 3 different ways- reducing GHG's by 80-85%
(because of the efficiency of scale in large
power plants and the 50% efficiency of electric
motors on wheels compared to 12% for internal
combustion engines, most of which goes up
as heat). Electric cars would eliminate the
incredible GHG cost of refining, distilling
(with coal), fertilizing + harvesting
(with alcohol),transporting, storing.... a liquid fuel-
the electrical grid is a costless invisible
existing distribution network. 5 new models
are just reaching distribution, but the much heralded GM Volt,
is very expensive and only has a range of 40 miles, 45% of the
I long believed the US corn alcohol craze demands so much energy that it isn't better than using gasoline to begin with (29% better, says Gore). Now stories are that huge swathes of forest are being clear cut for fuel crops, making alcohol twice as bad as oil. Converting food into fuel also has explosive moral consequences in an increasingly hungry world, as evidenced by the latest food price rises, which cause ever more forest destruction. To fill a 50L tank takes 232kg of corn, enough to feed 2 people for a year, and the US is now diverting 30% of their inefficient corn to make fuel (sugar cane is 3 times more efficient). This may come to be regarded as a crime against humanity. Insanely the US and Europe are mandating increasing food to fuel conversion. T Boone Pickens was investing $10 billion in a truly massive scheme of 2700 wind turbines across the Texas Panhandle, and wants a national program of building them in a swath from south to north, with solar from Texas to Ca. across the southwest, what Obama should have committed half the TARP stimulus to- $400 billion, instead of agreeing to a $300 billion tax cut. An enormous opportunity to lead the world and set America towards energy independence was squandered.
blue=fresh water; red=saline
In January and February 2006, Europe and Russia, from Italy to the Urals suffered one of worst cold waves on record with perhaps 1000 people dead for 5 weeks. For 3 weeks it didn't break -18 in Russia. Maybe the onset of bitter ice age cold comes fast too- but we don't have to guess- the tale is written in the ice cores. According to ICE, the end of the Eemian warm period came hard and fast 115,000 years ago, and Neanderthals back then found themselves flung from warmth to Ice Age... in only 50 years. One scientist theorized that the ice sheets mostly didn't roll down from the North but were formed in place- the stupendous recent rainstorms- 1 m. in Bombay in a day, 1.54 m. in 2 days in Haiti, would be 10-15 m. of snow.
The thinking in Russia and Canada has often been that global warming is mostly good: leading to longer growing seasons, milder winters, a Northern Passage from Asia to Europe; but the possibility of catastrophic climate shifts from the interruption of the Gulf Stream illustrate the extraordinary danger of tinkering with the planetary balance. Gore's book shows a nighttime photo of the eastern hemisphere with Siberia blazing with light from the hundreds of medieval torches of flaring gas in oil fields, a destructive practice stopped most places; but ironically, considering the greenhouse power of methane- better than venting it directly.
election (US 2010 -of Tea Party Republicans, who took over the House),
you could almost interpret .. as a death knell for the species,"
intones wisest man Noam Chomsky, "Nobody else is going to do very much
unless the United States does alot- takes the lead." Many of the new
Representatives, some heading committees, are Global Warming
deniers- fools or corporate prostitutes, but in a decade or 2, they may
be considered.... mass murderers. With a $15-20 trillion carbon
infrastructure at stake, billions to bribe and propagandize are small
change, and have been horribly effective. Maybe a third of Americans
now doubt GW is human caused! The collapse of the Copenhagen Climate
talks due to complete Chinese intransigence, who rejected even
voluntary European targets, (you don't want us to get ours) was
The future is coming clear with the catastrophic US 2012 drought (where corn is being plowed under), and Russian 2010 harvest- 40% below normal due to searing drought that smoked Moscow like a sausage for a month. There will be a drought like no one has ever seen- 40-50 for 2 months across America, Canada, Europe, Russia, Northern Africa; and suddenly there will be 40-50% less food for the world, prices will skyrocket 4-10 times, those with food will start hoarding for the future... and a billion people will starve. They will be the poorest people in India, China, South America, Africa- and civilization will start to unravel. The millions of weakened and dying people will provide a fertile field for epidemics and superbugs- and the next Bird Flu will rip through the world. I see this happening within 10 years, definitely 20. The astronomical zone of habitability is very narrow, and the Earth is about to radically reduce the presence of man.
A few years ago, geneticists tracked back the Y-DNA transmitted unchanged from man to man to find the so-called Adam, the first man. They thought it would lead back hundreds of thousands of years and were stunned when it only showed Adam living only about 65,000 years ago, among the famous Bushmen (San) people of the Kalahari. Within the same year, other geologists investigating an unknown massive supervolcano (Toba) in Sumatra, Indonesia (near the origin of the 2004 tsunami), that had left very thick ash layers all over the world, dated it \85. to 73,000 years, and found it was the largest eruption in many million years (2800 cu. km. ejected). In other words, this monstrous eruption and the 6 years of global winter and 2000 year bitter cold it provoked* in the depth of last ice age may have come close to wiping out the human race- but they all came back from one tribe in Southern Africa. *(lowest red dip in the exact middle of the first graph)
It's likely all these new findings mean that warming will be at least double what was expected in the worse case, maybe much more, and that all margin for delay is gone. The earth's climate is an enormous system with a huge amount of inertia. It will resist change, and resist movement until the pressure is overwhelming\85 when it will swing unseeing and unstoppable, like a wrecking ball towards our civilization. We have engaged in a massive reckless experiment by deforesting the earth and altering our atmosphere, thinner proportionally than the skin of an apple, and the results are coming like a freight train.
consequences of deforestation were starvation, a population crash, and
a descent into cannibalism. Surviving islanders' accounts of starvation
are graphically confirmed by the proliferation of little statues called
moai kavakava, depicting starving people with hollow cheeks and
protruding ribs. Captain Cook in 1774 described the islanders as
"small, lean, timid, and miserable." ---- Easter Island after
they had eradicated 11 species of trees, 12 of seabirds, and lost 85%
of their population. - Collapse
by Jared Diamond
Copyright 2012 Michael Hammerschlag
1 278 to 411= 133/278= 48%; highest CO2 seems 303ppm 320,000 years ago= 108/303=35%; Ocean sediment indicates highest CO2 in 6-20 million years
2 Atomic weight of Carbon = 12; Molecular Wt. of CO2 = 12+16+16 = 44 (3.66 times more)
3 This is conservative; if one considers that emission without the atmosphere over 20 years, the effect of that much methane (4x more than current emissions) could create a warming 23 times that of all the CO2 humans emit, but these things operate by atmospheric concentrations and increase only by the square root..
4"Climate Change" as a label came from a successful Republican Oil/Coal campaign to confuse the issue. The problem is GLOBAL WARMING; Climate Change is the result, rarely it might be cooler in some locations; but monster storms and rainfall are consistant with much more water in the atmosphere..
-- If you want see how complicated this stuff can be see this chart.
Michael Hammerschlag's commentary and articles (HAMMERNEWS.com) have appeared in New York Times, International Herald Tribune, Seattle Times, Providence Journal, Columbia Journalism Review, Honolulu Advertiser, Capital Times, MediaChannel; and Moscow News, Tribune, Times, and Guardian. He was a chemist, worked on a Mauna Kea telescope, and has written on the energy crisis and global warming over 3 decades. He broke the first comprehensive story on media mistakes in the 2000 election, spent 2 years in Russia as the empire collapsed and 1 when it recovered, and has covered 2 Presidential campaigns. firstname.lastname@example.org
REFERENCES - Global Warming Worse than You Think
Sources of Human GHG's: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector.png
140,000 Yr temp, different cores chart http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Epica-vostok-grip-140kyr.png
800,000 Yr Ice Core temp-CO2 chart http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Co2-temperature-plot.png
World Coal Use (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table14.xls
450,000 Yr melt multi chart- temp, CO2, methane, solar chart
CO2 highest now: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png
Solar Cause Ice Age: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Milankovitch_Variations.png
Greenhouse Gases and exact effect: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/248.htm
CO2 Now: http://co2.earth/
CO2 (Mauna Loa) 1958-2010 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg
GHG increases: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_list_of_greenhouse_gases
Clathrate Wells- Collett: QUESTIONED http://www.stanford.edu/~burney/sustjc/10-jesse%20(methane%20hydrates)%2028%20feb%2005/Methane%20Hydrates.pdf
500 million PETM temp chart: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png
Smith says this is grossly inaccurate and misquotes him saying "70gt of methane", rather than "carbon"
Mining Methane Hydrates: http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=13433&ch=biztech
Everything Methane (Schmidt): http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/methane/ INTERVIEWED 4X
Katey Walter's Senate Presentation: INTERVIEWED 2X http://www.eesi.org/briefings/2006/Energy&Climate/6.15.06_ClimateSymposium/Katey%20Walter_6.15.06.pdf
Methane bubbling in lakes: http://www.awra.org/state/alaska/proceedings/2004abstracts/Thurs_Methane_Bubbling.doc
GW terrifying numbers: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719
Antarctica True Land (amazing): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:AntarcticaRockSurface.jpg
Carbon Dioxide coming out of ocean: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/positive-feedbacks-from-the-carbon-cycle/
CO2 acidifying the oceans: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/25/water-ocean-acidity-shellfish
Water Vapor increase: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:BAMS_climate_assess_boulder_water_vapor_2002.gif
Old Growth Deforestation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oldgrowth3.jpg
Black Soot warming: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2003/dec/HQ_03420_black_soot.html
Methane's effect 2x more: http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/methane.html
Volume methane, halocarbs, NO emissions: http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/greenhouse/evolution.html
Dimming the Sun: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/about.html
BBC Dimming Sun (text): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml
Hansen- 350 ppm target- http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/07/climatechange.carbonemissions
Zero Emissions by 2050- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/09/AR2008030901867.html
Is Alcohol a scam- http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/060506EC.shtml
We drive, they starve- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/14/ccview114.xml
The Clean Energy Scam- http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1725975,00.html
T Boone Pickens' Wind Scheme- http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/14/windpower.energy
Australia Firestorms- 2 Days of Hell http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2489831.htm
Gulf Stream Drops 30%:
Bitter cold kills 181 in Ukraine Records fall as cold grips Europe: http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/01/26/ukraine.cold.deaths/index.html
Astronomical Ice Age Cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Milankovitch_Variations.png
The Heat is On(line)- http://www.heatisonline.org/
Peak Oil and a Changing Climate - The Nation video
TOBA eruption: http://zyx.org/TOBA.html
Prof. Stanley Ambrose near-extinction theory: http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/evolution
Paying to Not Cut Forests- http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19726481.400-save-the-climate-by-saving-the-forests.html
Compressed Air Cars- http://www.enn.com/business/article/31309
Energy For the Long Run- http://hammernews.com/energylongrun.htm 1980 -----"Creating alcohol from grain is very inefficient, and in 25-30 years a starving world won't sit idly by while we waste foodstuff on a massive scale just to run our cars..'"
A WARM + BRIGHT FUTURE ARCHIVE In the News part 1-(Maui Time- Sept 1-14, 1998) + part 2 (9/15-28) Evidence and results of worldwide unprecedented warming- hottest ten years in last 2000 all since 1981. 1998 hottest year ever, 1997 hottest before that, each month a new world's record (inc 2005). Discusses nitrogen oxides, methane, + water vapor's huge contributions (3-5 TIMES what we've been computing). Part 1 - Evidence for worldwide global warming- may cause a possible ice age PART 2 (only) What we can do + what we will do; Weather extremes + resulting deaths.. Letter from VP Al Gore about article (jpeg) HTML FULL Article US NEWS cover story on Global Warming 2/28/00 - Antarctic Meltdown WEST ANTARCTIC ICESLIDE 4800 Cu. Mi. ARCTIC ICE MELTED- 2-17-05 POINT of NO RETURN - 9-16 GULF STREAM DROPS 30% 12-1-05 COLD WAVE KILLS THOUSAND IN EUROPE - 1-20-06 ICE AGE HERE? DIMMING the SUN- pollution has stopped 2 rise
The Last Days of the
VERY IMPORTANT HUGE SERIES (below) about the widespread destruction of ocean's fisheries in MOTHER JONES. Essentially we've wiped out the base algae eating fish that all other carnivorous fish eat- the oily foot-long menhaden
Caribbean Coral Suffers Record Death Mar 30, NYT
A one-two punch of bleaching from record hot water followed by disease has killed ancient and delicate coral in the biggest loss of reefs scientists have ever seen in Caribbean waters. Early conservative estimates from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands find that about one-third of the coral in official monitoring sites has recently died.
Saturday, January 28, 2006
BARROW, Alaska - Ridges of sea ice packing car-sized chunks of the cold stuff slammed onto a road in this northern Alaskan town in quantities not seen in nearly three decades. Two ice surges, known to Alaska Natives as ivus, stunned residents who had never seen such large blocks of ice rammed ashore. Ivus are like frozen tsunamis and crash ashore violently. They have killed hunters and are among the Arctic's most feared natural phenomena.