New evidence obtained during the last few months, show that global warming may be much more serious problem than we imagine. Detailed analysis by drilling a 4-kilometer Antarctic and Greenland ice, shows that almost one year there was a catastrophic change in temperature at 8-14 ° C.

In the past 15 years climatologists have drilled five wells, traveling deep into the Earth's history for 900 thousand years ago, passing through eight full glacial periods, determining the temperature of those days, the weather, the composition of the dust, plant pollen, bacteria, and the actual atmospheric gases preserved in the ice layers as the annual rings of a tree - all of this is the most detailed description of the history of the Earth, ever existed. One of the most comprehensive studies of Antarctic ice report was submitted in 2004 (EPICA).

Temperature peaks in the last million years (determined by measuring the amount of heavy oxygen O18) coincide exactly with the peaks and downs of the content of oxygen and methane concentrations, but the current CO2 levels are outside of any tables that are 36% higher than in pre-industrial period, and 25% higher than it was during the last million years.

The unprecedented rise of the level of carbon dioxide began with 1750, ie after the official start of emission of gases causing the greenhouse effect. It is believed that 100-thousand-year cycles of ice ages are related to different constant changes the Earth's orbit (changes from circular to more elliptical closer to the sun the earth's rotation during the interglacial warming), but the powerful greenhouse gases may increase or modify these oscillations of the Earth's orbit.

The figure is very misleading average warming, as the warming effect increases dramatically, depending on latitude. Thus, the average warming of 0,8 ° C over the past 100 years at the time of the last in 2006 may mean 0,4 ° C - warming in the tropics, 1-1,6 ° - warming in Europe and 3-6 ° - rise in temperature in the Arctic , especially in night temperature minima, which reduces ice formation. "Tropical and northern latitudes differ from each other three times in terms of warming - says climatologist Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard. - Some places are "warmed up" much more the norm over the past 50 years. Very strong warming occurred in Siberia and Alaska, but if you go to the Labrador coast, there is very little change. "

We throw away 8 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, and this figure increased by 2.5% annually. Indicator of pollution, is now equal to 380 ppm, rising each year by 2-3 ppm. Emissions of carbon dioxide economically developing China and India are growing as the blast wave. In China, coal-fired power plant - the worst possible fuel. Each ton of coal burned is 3 tons of carbon dioxide! China now uses 10 times less electricity per capita than America. It is not yet.

Still, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, or, - not the worst acting factor. Methane gives a greenhouse effect 62 times greater than carbon dioxide. For 250 years, methane has increased by two and a half times. Fortunately, its concentration in air is less than carbon dioxide - 1.7 parts per million, but this could change quickly. Less than half of the methane is naturally produced - in volcanoes, in peat bogs, organic fertilizers. All this is about 500-700 Mt per year, but the data are approximate. followed by nitric oxide. It is three hundred times more powerful than carbon dioxide, and it does not decay within 114 years, appearing from fertilizers from agricultural activities, deforestation, and from vehicle exhaust. And finally, the worst thing that can be - it is CFC and halocarbon artificially created by man and used in refrigeration and in aerosol cans. They have thousands of times stronger than carbon dioxide, and the period of their existence is a few thousand years. These gases, significantly affecting the warming effect is practically not taken into account. All the talk is usually of a high content of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, methane can be a time bomb. About 900 billion tons of carbon exists in the form of organic matter in peat bogs and in the permafrost of Siberia, Greenland, Canada and Alaska. The most annoying thing for the world is warming in the Arctic, 3-60 at night, and this contributes to the melting of the old (115,000 years) in the frozen tundra in the territory equal to France and Germany combined, transforming it into a mixture of mud and lakes, causing active decomposition of organic matter and turn it into methane. Russian scientist Sergey Kirpotin called it an "ecological landslide that was inevitable and, indeed, linked to global warming ... which happened in the last 3 or 4 years."

"When this area and is a semiflooded nizkokislorodnuyu environment, you get methane, and if it is ventilated and not swampy, the carbon dioxide" - says a hydrologist from the University of California, Larry Smith, who has studied the long Siberian lakes and rivers. His study showed that Siberia dries because the barrier of the permafrost melts slowly, resulting in a loss of 6% of the lake area. The water escapes through the porous sediments, just as when we go down the water in the bathroom. The formation of "greenhouse gases" in these dry areas is greatly accelerated, since the presence of a larger amount of oxygen the bacteria get more energy points Katie Walter of the University of Alaska.

For three and a half years of joint team of Russian and American scientists led by Walter found several hot spots of methane, in which the lake water does not freeze even in winter, indicating a much more organic matter than previously thought. Scientists believe that this is the result of biodegradation of the rich pastures Pleistocene, which were grazing mammoths and bison. It was rich in organic terrain, and all this grass, and the remains of those animals still continue to decompose. The water in these hot spots are constantly bubbling, as if boiling.
In his report to the U.S. Senate, made ​​in 2006, Walter estimated that the carbon deposits in the Siberian ice together make up a huge number of 500 gigatons, this is almost equal to the whole mass of the current vegetation of the earth 650 megatons! Worst of all, according to Walter, is that most of this entire mass can decompose under the present conditions in less than one century. The thickness of the layer of decomposing it is 25 meters, and all this in more than Texas.

Large sections of 8-tysyachemilnoy weakened coastal tundra exposed to destruction, and gradually disappearing under the Arctic Ocean, thus freeing them are in the gases (including a hitherto unknown quantity of clathrate, which will be discussed below). The potential danger of methane is huge. If only half a percent per year from a total of 500 gigatons of carbon from the organic matter of the Siberian Ice Complex will turn into methane (forming, thus thousands of gigatons of methane 2.5), the greenhouse effect, which occurs over a century, is the widow of higher than one who was called to this day as a result of industrial emissions in the world today.

End of the material read in the January issue of the "Centaur"