BOMBING IRAN
by Michael Hammerschlag
Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities is said to be impossible by a chorus of wise men, many of whom couldn’t be heard before the reckless Iraq invasion. It would provoke an “explosion of hatred in the Muslim world.” “[A] military strike would be disastrous for the United States.” “He (Bush) does not have a military option.” “It would accelerate, not delay, the Iranian nuclear program. Hard-liners in Tehran would be proven right in their claim that the only thing that can deter the United States is a nuclear bomb. Iranian leaders could respond with a crash nuclear program that could produce a bomb in a few years.”
Well maybe, but the true cause of the wholesale rejection of action against the untenable threat Iranian nukes present is Bush’s immolation of the US military honeymoon, the presumption of good faith in America’s integrity and decency; that military action would be the very last step of the world’s storehouse of democracy. The greatest strategic danger in Bush’s criminally reckless and dishonest invasion was that it would politically paralyze our ability to deal with any other threats and cripple the military. Those younger than 40 won’t remember.
Before there was Al Qaida (what there really is of it- perhaps 1000 odd people before Iraq), there was Iran, fomenting terrorism around the world (directly or via their Islamic Jihad surrogates), blowing up US Embassies and Marine barracks in Beirut (300 dead), Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, perhaps the Pan-Am 103 bombing1, executing tens of thousands of dissenters, assassinating scores of émigrés around the world including many founding Revolutionaries, and criminally imprisoning US diplomats for 15 months.
Ayatollah Khomeini was simply a monster-
for 6 years after a settlement could have
been reached in the 8 year war with Iraq,
he sent hundreds of thousands of children
into machine guns with only a headband in
human wave attacks for "the glory of
Allah" (500-750,000 died).
One thing was obvious for the last quarter
century- Iran should never ever be allowed to have the Bomb- they are the only country besides North
Korea that might use it against us, they
have a perverse obsession with martyrdom, and a far greater record
of international terrorism (N. Korea’s is
vast, but directed entirely at the South).
Strangely the Russians have been helping
the Iranians' nuclear aspirations in a phantom
hand reprise of their “influence”, although
they are even more endangered by bomb diversion
to Chechen rebels, who have thought nothing
of slaughtering schools of children in response
to the Russians’ huge depredations and would
fry Moscow in a heartbeat.2 click to enlarge
No one is suggesting a war or invasion, but
a 5-10 day aerial campaign against the 12-24
nuclear sites and air and coastal defense
systems. Again, action is handicapped by
the corrupt and manipulative Administration
conflation of the struggle against a handful
of terrorists into a war on terrorism, a war that can never end because
one can’t defeat a tactic. That has diverted,
corrupted, and wasted our capabilities, resolve,
and principles in the ancient sands of Mesopotamia.
But if such an attack can delay the Iranian
achievement of a nuclear bomb from 1-2 years
to 8-10, it would be worth the world condemnation
and Iranian retaliations. In 8-10 years,
hopefully the brutal teetering Islamic dictatorship,
despised by the vast majority of the populace,
will be gone. Despite the Army and Marines
being vastly brutally overextended, the Air
Force and Navy aren’t, and are ideally situated
for removing the Iranian nuclear plants.
Those who definitively declare that Iran
is 10 years from a bomb now are spinning
fantasy- no one can know that, and almost
all predictions of incipient nuclear capabilities have been
wrong3. The basic plans for a bomb are well known,
especially since Pakistani Abdul Khan spread
specific ones around the world like Johnny
Appleseed- the only missing ingredient is
fissile material, which can be generated
in a year or two. And no matter what the
Iranians say and what inspections they agree
to, Ahmadinejad means to have the bomb, and
will do whatever it takes. Naysayers say
‘but Iran only has 162 uranium enriching
centrifuges’, but would they tell us if they
had 5000, with Bush threatening attacks?
Russia and China have no intention of imposing
UN sanctions.
Iran has some of the largest oil reserves
in the world and doesn’t need nuclear power
plants. Are they living in a dangerous nuclear
neighborhood? Not really. Pakistan may not
like Shiites, but there haven’t been great
tensions between them. Russia hasn’t been
threatening since the 50’s and is even selling Iran nuclear technology. Turkey has no nukes of
its own, and little to do with Iran; India
is more remote. Iraq is now a partial satrapy
of Iran (most ruling Shiites lived in Iran
for many years) and no threat whatsoever
as it descends into civil war. Israel isn’t
about to ever use their nukes unless their
survival is threatened or Tel Aviv is vaporized. The only reason Iran wants nukes is to
keep America at bay, and project power. Under
a nuclear umbrella all manner of provocative
acts would be likely
.
Bombing Iran won’t be painless. They can
cause widespread uprisings and attacks against
US forces in Shiite Iraq; perhaps even prevail
on the Iraqi government to throw us out of the country (one way out); they could sink ships in the
Persian Gulf with their supersonic anti-ship
missiles; they could cut oil production (but
probably not for long). US interests may
be attacked throughout the Muslim world,
and the world will excoriate and isolate
us. But none of these compare to the horrific
prospect of a nuclear sun rising over an
American city. Not the Bush propaganda lie,
but the real thing.
Wise man former NSA director William Odom
said to me (audio), “They wouldn’t kill us with one nuke.”
Yes, but our political system couldn’t take 200-400,000 dead (estimate of 20 kt. bomb
in midtown Manhattan), look how pathologically
we reacted to 3000 dead in 9-11. We would
become a police state, throw the 8 million
US Muslims in camps or deport them, expand
the already ominous surveillance till the
Bill of Rights was an irrelevant piece of paper. Saying
that Iran will go all out to make nukes if
we bomb them is like saying we can’t put
a criminal in jail cause he’ll kill us when
he gets out- it renders any action impossible.
Could Bush be using this as another diversion from his abysmal record? Yes, but it doesn’t
matter. We don’t have to trust Bush- we can
trust the fulminating threats of radical
fundamentalist hostage-taker Ahmadinejad, who has purged all moderate
voices in the government and made apocalyptic
threats against Israel not heard for 30 years.
Unlike everything Bush has previously done,
this is a real critical national security issue, that will
determine if the US will exist as a liberal
democracy. It’s a tough choice, but one we
must take, not for Israel, which can take
care of itself, but for us.
1 We supposedly pinned it on the Libyans, but
they had suffered 14 years of sanctions and
were willing to plead to anything to stop
them; it was also authoritatively stated
that Iran and Syria were responsible at different
points. The accidental US downing of the
Iranian Mecca pilgrim Airbus by the Vincennes five months before (after the Iraqi missile
attack on the Stark) means to me that Iran had to have a hand
in it.
2 I tried to influence the Russian sale of
submarines and nuclear technology to Iran
in a column I wrote in ’93 in Russia, it was about the only
thing the respected liberal Moscow News wouldn’t run.
3 Soviets wouldn’t have Bomb till 1955; it
was ’49; China wouldn’t have one till ’72,
it was ’64; Israel’s only was suspected in
1968-70, known in 1980-86, but they had the
Bomb by 1966; India’s Bomb in 1974 was relative surprise;
Cuba had no Bombs in the Missile Crisis,
they actually had 162 (audio-McNamara)
Michael Hammerschlag’s commentaries + articles
have appeared in Seattle Times, Providence Journal, Honolulu
Advertiser, Columbia Journalism Review, Media
Channel, and Capital Times. He reported from Russia for
2 1/2 years and wrote for Moscow News, Tribune, Guardian, Times, and
We/Mui. His web page is http://HAMMERNEWS.com , mail: hammerschlag@bigfoot.com
NSA Director Gen. William Odom (article) -new (REALAUDIO)- 52 min Dissects strategic
blunder of Iraq, escape strategies, geopolitical
consequences, Iran attack, Korea- April 7
- Brown Univ., Watson Institute
MY QUESTIONS on IRAN BOMBING (realaudio) + @ 2:03 HANDICAPPING IRAQ CIVIL WAR - 7:14 min total WindowsMedia
NEW HOPE for IRAN- June '97 NPR
TOTN comments on Iran 1/22/03 (move slider to 21:45-24:40)
Overwhelming election of Khatami; likelihood
of overthrow of Islamic dictators. A country
of children: 70% under 25 years, 40% under
14- tired of sexual and cultural repression:
strict segregation of sexes, no dances, Western
videos, movies, handholding. Corruption of
ruling mullahs and perversion of Islamic
values: 98% of clergy NOT in leadership.
Origin of Shiite's obsession with death and
sacrifice. America's options- (forecasts lifting of Rushdie Fatwa)